Herd on the Beach

Recently on Good Morning America there was a segment on Freakonomics which the author discussed the herd mentality and gave the example how he and his daughter used to go to a bus stop and wait several buses because it was so popular. After weeks of waiting and then being squished on a packed bus he had an idea. He walked a couple of blocks to the stop just before this popular stop and now he and his daughter get on the bus and get a seat when they used to have to wait for a bus and then stand for the ride.

And this little snippet relates to real estate how? you ask. Do you follow what everyone else is does, becoming part of the herd, or do you do your own research and make decisions that are in your own best interests? Do you blindly trust the media, or do you use those reports just as part of your deliberative process?

Herd behavior is the term used to describe situations in which a group of individuals react coherently without there being any coordination between them. Such a group is called a herd. The term is used uncontentiously to describe the behavior of animals within herds and flocks, and more controversially to describe some kinds of human phenomena such as stock market bubbles, and behavior in political demonstrations.

A great little item in Wikipedia describes it this way: "In the case of stock market bubbles, the optimal behavior for an individual may be to do what everyone else is doing, because even though everyone knows that they are in a bubble, until it bursts, most profit is to be made by staying in the market. In this case the term "herd behavior" is relatively appropriate, because the "collective" behavior emerges from uncoordinated individual choices. Interestingly, though the behavior of the group is evidently irrational, the behavior of the individuals that cause it is rational at least in the short term, though it does show some abandonment of risk aversion, as the crash usually occurs without much warning." I have found that the real estate bubble has affected the masses the same way: the masses have become the herd.

Most people know about Warren Buffet's theory of stock picks. Buy quality and do not buy when everyone else is buying. Buy value and buy it cheap. I think that's it pretty much in a nutshell. Books have been written about him so I am not going to expound any more. But I share his theory as it relates to real estate--especially in this market: buy value and get it for a good price. Take advantage of the down market. Perhaps even profit as the misfortune of others. I'm not being hard, I am being pragmatic. If you have cash and can afford to buy in this market and want to buy a good property, do it. The junk is not selling. Not in Key West. But the good properties are. And some are being purchased at very attractive prices.

CLICK HERE to search the Key West mls website where you can see every residential and commercial listing from Key West to Key Largo. If you are looking for a property in Key West or the lower Florida Keys, please give me a call and lets discuss how I can help you. 1-305-766-2642.

Buy This Old House

The grand two and a half story home at 1009 Southard Street is another bargain looking for a new owner. The 3719 square foot home sits on one of the great streets in Key West. Just a few doors to the east is the big house that sold last year for $5.5 million. And across the street is the home of the former Vice Chairman of AOL Time Warner. (It was featured in a huge Architectural Digest piece a few years ago.) White House Chief of Staff Joshua Bolten owns the house next door to the west. All in all, it's a pretty good neighborhood.

The house is presently configured as a 3 unit building with a studio apartment downstairs in the front, a two bed two bath apartment on the second and third floor, and the owners quarters are at the rear of the main level. The tenants have their own private pool, but the large pool at the rear is the domain of the owners. And the owner's guests have their own cottage accessed off Lowes Lane. Oh, and there is also a garage.

The house is in very good condition as it sits. The kitchen and bath in the owner's quarters are about 15 to 20 years old. But they are perfectly liveable as is. A new owner may want to restore the house to a single family residence. There is plenty of room to do whatever suits your fancy. And the price at $482 per square foot is a bargain.

CLICK HERE to see more photos and read more about this great Old Town home. And then please give me a call to see it. I think you will be surprised at how wonderful a property this is. My number is 1-305-766-2642.

Cutie Pie

A couple of months back I wrote a blog on Life on the Slow Lane describing why homes on the quaint lanes of Old Town are so inviting. GO HERE to read that blog if interested.

The house at 816 Carsten Lane is a real Cutie Pie. Carsten Lane is a one block lane
running perpendicular to William Street and Elizabeth Street and just south of Southard Street. It is within walking distance of everything Old Town has to offer, yet you almost need a map to find it. The five homes on Carsten Lane abut Carey Lane to the rear. And I think Carey Lane is one of the prime addresses in town. The MARC House is located across Carsten Lane and is going to become a major renovation project in the next couple of years.

CLICK HERE to see the mls data sheet and more photos of this cutie pie cottage. The cottage is almost 1100 square feet and has two bedrooms, two bathrooms, a new kitchen, and it just oozes charm. The ceiling in the main living area is vaulted and exposed wood. It is very dramatic. There is room for a pool.

This is not my listing, but I would be pleased to show it to anyone looking for a great little home in Old Town. The bathrooms are about 20 years old or so, but look fine and work well. So a new owner could move in and either do a few upgrades or do nothing at all. The seller has just reduced the price to way below the appraised value. It is now priced at $#779,995 or $727 per square foot.

CLICK HERE to search for your next home or business in Key West or the lower Florida Keys. The please call me at 1-305-766-2642 for further information or to set up a showing.

Key West is NOT South Beach

I watched part of an insipid Extra last night only because I woke up and could not go back to sleep. There was a segment on the beautiful people in South Beach and why the viewer ought to go to a particular club where only VIP's can enter. Now why would an average Joe want to go somewhere that he is not good enough to enter? New York and LA have the same type of clubs where one must be rich, or famous, or beautiful, or outrageous to gain entry. The same goes for the chic restaurants in those big cities. There are some restaurants that are so special that the average Joe cannot get a reservation, no matter how long he is willing to wait. Didn't the French have a Revolution about such non-egalitarian behavior?

Well, there are no VIP clubs or restaurants where you are not welcome in Key West. Everybody is welcome. I remember that during my first trip to Key West a local told me about how people from all stratas of society intermingle here. Of course, that was over 20 years ago. And for the most part I think it is pretty true today. Some of the newer arrivals who have spent big bucks on their homes may not get it, but most do. The golf course is public and the "Yacht Club" is open to anyone.

It is the openness and accepting nature of the way we get along in Key West that makes this little place so special. The town has lots of gays. But it probably has as many or more counter-culture (left over hippies). Key West has a huge population of foreigners who work in the hospitality business, many of whom are from the Russia and the Ukraine and are Muslims. The native conchs surely make up the largest segment of the population.

What does this have to do with real estate? Nothing other than if you want to be a snob and be with the beautiful people to to South Beach, or LA, or NYC where chic is in and VIP's rule. Key West is not South Beach. Thank God.

Take the pics to the right. This is a perfect example of what I tell potential buyers about location and value. The house at the top is locate in the 1000 block of Southard Street. It was on the market for over 2 years before it sold earlier this year at a real bargain price of $772,000 on May 19,2006 for $874 per square foot.
That price was a steal in my opinion because it's next door neighbor at 1017 Southard sold last year at $5.5 million. And almost all of the neighboring properties are price in the $2 million range. Except for one: the neighbor next door to the east, Cafe Sole`. That's the fly in the ointment.

The before pic shows the house at it's worst. It had an Ugly enclosed front porch with no street appeal. But it has a good sized side yard with room for a pool and existing off-street parking. But parking is not an issue at this location anyway. The former owner was a realtor and he kept dropping the price until someone bought the location and the development possibility. The pic below shows how the present owner is renovating the property. I could not tell if there will be a pool in the side yard or not. I think the new owner stands to make a sizable profit when and if he/she sells. A snob would never have bought this house because of Cafe Sole`, but I think a wiseman did.

People Don't Listen

Seven years ago a friend from 27 years ago came to Key West with his partner to look at homes. They had a 45 foot motor coach (a rock star bus, actually) and they wanted to find a place that would accommodate the monster. That requirement pretty much eliminated all of Old Town. We started looking in the Casa Marina area and the area just east of White Street. We met with a fellow in the city building department so that my buyers could understand what type of property the city would permit them to park their motor coach on.

We found a couple of properties that met their needs. They really liked a new house on Flagler. I warned them of the extreme difficulty in selling a house on that street because of the noise. Then they found a house on White Street that could have made a wonderful remodel. It told them that White Street was a killer address as well. I recounted two listings of superb homes on White Street that I just could not sell because every local hates that street. We finally found a property on Washington Street that met their needs. It had a very large lot, large specimen palms, and two ROGO units. They decided to tear down the existing structure and build a new home and a "carport" for the motor coach.

My friend was a real estate developer from Denver and had plenty of experience building homes. So he was able to build the new house much less expensively than one not so familiar with the construction trade. After the house was done we talked about the other properties he and his partner had looked at and he said something I thought was odd. He said I talk too much and that I gave too much information. He said that I should be quiet and let people figure out if the property works for them.

I replied that I want to help people make informed decisions and not buy something that has problems or that would be difficult to resell, because most people who buy in Key West don't keep their houses all that long. My experience has been that most people sell the first property and move up a notch. He replied that the buyers are adults and can make their own decisions and their own mistakes. That's a argument I could not refute.

I have not changed my ways, however. I still try to give lots of information to help buyers make the correct decision. But the house or condo they pick is their decision, not mine. I don't try to impose my choice on my customers.

I also know from experience that most customers do not listen to what a Realtor says when he or she shows a property. Most customers are too busy looking a the awful artwork or dreaming about what it would be like to relax by the pool. They overlook flaws to see things that impress then negatively or positively. The really experienced buyers do listen, however. And those buyers tend to be successful in their fields of expertise back home.

That's my theory at any rate. The Key West MLS website just expanded areas covered today. So you can now look at all mls listings in real time from Key West to Key Largo. That is over one hundred miles of homes and businesses. CLICK HERE to enter your search criteria. Remember to limit your search criteria. And consider giving me a call if I can be of any assistance to you. 1-305-766-2642.

An explanation about the pictures. The old black and white photo shows the Island City House in its condition from years ago. It was rehabbed several years back an made into a guest house. And a couple of years ago it was condominiumized. Sales have not done very well. Not by a long short. There are some outstanding properties on William Street where this building is located. This in my opinion is not one of them.

Season is Over. How did the Market Do?

Season is over. How did the real estate market do in Key West this year as compared to 2004, 2005, and 2006?

I did a quick search of SOLD homes, condos, duplexes, and 3-4 units from Key West through Shark Key priced over $200,000 from January 1st thru April 22, 2007. There were a total of 122 such sales. The least expensive sale was a studio condo listed for $239K and sold for $220K. The average sale was a 3-bedroom home with 1425 sq ft listed for $954,991 and that sold for $888,826. The most expensive sale was a Sunset Key home listed for $6.5 million that sold for $5.8 million.

In 2005 there were only 95 sales during the same time period. The least expensive condo sold for $287,000. The average sale was a 3 bedroom, 1706 sq ft listed at $775,000 and sold for $729,000. The most expensive home was an Old Town home on Southard Street that was listed for $5.9 million and sold for $5.5 million.

But 2005 had more sales that 2006 and 2007 combined. There were a total of 244 sales in the same time period. The least expensive sale was a condo listed for $324,900 that sold for $320,000. The average sale was a 3 bedroom 1411 sq ft listed at $982,502 and that sold for $948,271. The most expensive home was listed at $4.5 million and sold for $4.3 million.

But there is good news to go along with the above numbers for 2007. There are a total of 64 contingent or pending contracts. The least expensive is a condo listed for $250K, the average is a 3 bedroom 1550 sq ft home listed at $998,381, and the most expensive homes average $5.1 million.

I am fond of saying that statistics lie and liars use statistics. There is no doubt that the statistics I cited show that the market has taken a dramatic downturn from 2005. But 2007 average sales price appears to outshine the 2006 time period. There are currently 1160 units on the market with the least expensive listed at $239,000, the average listed for $1.090,501, and the most expensive averaged at $6.250 million. That’s a lot of inventory.

The hardest part of the market to sell is the mid range priced home. And if you go back through Key West real estate sales to 1997 you will see that the mid range priced home has always been the most difficult priced property to sell. Back then the affordable fixer-uppers in Old Town sold around $250-280K. Homes over a million sold quite easily. But the majority of homes in the $500-800K range languished. Those homes are now just priced a lot higher. And I think the pessimism or skepticism about the lack of sales is failing to recognize this fact. Doomsayers are comparing the "boom market" sales of 2003 thru 2005 to today, and they are seeing dome and gloom.

My suggestion: if you are a seller and don’t need to sell now: Don’t list your property. If you must sell now, price it correctly. If you are a buyer, now is the time to buy. The market may not have totally bottomed, but good properties will get purchased before the dregs. Get the right property at a price you feel comfortable with.

Look at it this way: Macy’s is having a clearance sale on Prada shoes originally priced at $500. The sizes vary, and the prices will drop hourly until the entire collection is sold out. Would you prefer to get your exact size for $300 or hope to wait and get it at $250 or $225? You might get it at the cheaper price. But someone else may get the last pair at $300, and you go home shoeless. I think my analogy translates across the board to what is happening in the Key West real estate market today.

If you are interested in buying one of the Key West bargains CLICK HERE to do your own search of all real estate for sale. And then give me a call at 1-305-766-2642. I would be glad to help you find your next home or business in Paradise.

Politics & Real--Estate Key West Style

A while back I mentioned the conviction of noted former Monroe County Attorney Jimmy Hendricks, CLICK HERE in US District Court. The charges were conspiracy, witness tampering and obstruction of justice. Well, this morning's Key West Citizen has a story about the arrest of 74 year old Assistant City Manager, John Jones, on two charges of "FRAUD-IMPERSONATION OF A BUILDING CODE INSPECTOR FIRST VIOLATION".
CLICK HERE to read the story.

I mention this again because the politics of how real estate gets developed is a big deal in Key West. And for some reason criminal charges (and sometimes criminal convictions) are often a direct result of the development process.


Same newspaper, same day, some of the same characters has this headline: Lawsuit, neighbors lose battle over building transfers. CLICK HERE to read the item. The paper reported about a Key West Planning Board meeting where the board approved a plan to let Pritam Singh (developer of many projects in Key West) parlay building rights from the razed Hampton Inn on North Roosevelt Boulevard into two transient rental units at 707 Simonton. Jimmy Hendrick was at the meeting acting as Singh's land-use consultant and persuaded the Planning Board the transfer is legal because a court has not ruled against the city in a pending lawsuit.

And for those who think the Key West real estate market has hit bottom, or hasn't even got anywhere near the bottom, I would suggest that you step back and consider this. Some very big players are spending a lot of money on several really big projects in Key West. The little uproar over two transient units on Simonton Street is no big deal. But the players make it a big deal because there is money to be made as a result of the issuance of transient licenses at that location. And the continued development of other projects supports the premise that there is substantial future money to be made in Key West real estate.

If you Google the term "politics and real estate development" you will find 11,600 links discussing the topic. Maybe the two items in today's Key West Citizen are among those 11,600 because in Key West politics and real estate go hand in hand (or maybe hand in pocket).

Dazed and Confused

A lot of people leave Key West with mixed emotions. They fall in love with the place and work real hard at having such a good time that they go home dazed and confused. I guess a lot of people spend a lot of time in the bars... It's like everything they did is kind of hazy. And they need to go home to rest before they go back to work.

There is life away from Duval, however. I have written about that before. I thought I would share a couple of links to where locals post comments about like on the rock.

One is an Ezboard site called Its Only Key West CLICK HERE. There are seven sub-boards to checkout. If you are in love with Key West you may want to look at
the IOW Scrapbook for some real fun old pics of Key West. You will be amazed.

Checkout the other sections as well. Read how locals refer to tourists and their driving abilities.

Another more infamous site is Pistol and Enema, a gay gossip, message, and picture board. (Caution: there are some nude pics there. Not porn.) Again it is geared towards locals, but lots of folk who are planning trips to Key West go there to help plan their vacation so they don't miss a thing.

If you are planning a trip to Key West and think you may want to take advantage of today's more affordable housing market, checkout the the Key West Association of Realtors mls website. You can search all residential, commercial, and lots/boatslips available from Key West to Marathon. CLICK HERE. Then please give me a call for more information. 1-305-766-2642. Thanks.

Is the Sky going to Fall?

I have been trading e-mails with a customer who wants to buy a big home in Key West (a third home if I recall correctly), but who has developed a few reasons why he is postponing the purchase. The current market valuation is the prime factor. He thinks the price correction that has taken place has not completed its course. And he writes that he is awaiting to see if a hurricane scrapes Key West this season. If Key West gets hit, he thinks the market will fall to where were it was five years ago.

I think he is envisioning another Hurricane Wilma, but maybe he thinks any hurricane will be devastating. Other than Wilma, the hurricanes I have experienced are very bad rainstorms accompanied by very hard winds. But I experienced snowstorms and hailstorms in Colorado that produced as much property damage as Wilma did (except for the flooding--and that was an anomaly).

But I do understand his pessimism. I went to the Wikipedia to find support for my customer's pessimism. And I found this explanation of The Sky is Falling CLICK HERE. "In the "happy ending" version, the moral is not to be a "Chicken Licken" and have courage. In other versions the moral is usually interpreted to mean "do not believe everything you are told". In the latter case, it could well be a cautionary political tale: Chicken Licken jumps to a conclusion and whips the populace into mass hysteria, which the unscrupulous fox uses to manipulate them for his own benefit."

My customer lives in a state that is pelted by tornadoes and hurricanes. (Not Florida). He is a very educated person. He is very successful. He is looking for a reason to justify his reluctance to buy now. He has lots of company...

But there are other equally well educated, successful, and financially stable buyers that are purchasing choice properties at what I think will be deemed bargain prices.
Another such example just hit the mls this morning. 911 Fleming Street CLICK HERE was listed for sale 94 days ago at $4.675 million. It went under contract this morning. Some buyer does not see the sky as falling, but rather sees a buying opportunity.


CLICK HERE to preview all current mls listings in the Key West are. Then give me a call for further information. Thanks. 1-305-766-2642.

Property Taxes

There was a story on the evening news last night about the political debate going on in Tallahassee (Florida's state capitol) over property tax reform. It seems that real property values have increased so dramatically over the past few years that there are many new home buyers that can afford the price of the house, but cannot afford the property taxes. Likewise, existing homeowners are getting squeezed by ever-increasing property values that make their taxes more costly.

CLICK HERE to read a short article in today's Miami Herald that discusses the issues concisely.

The tax rate in Monroe County Florida is set near ten mills. That means property owners pay $1 for every hundred dollars of value of the real property. A home with an assessed value of at $890,000 would pay $8,900 per year in property taxes. If the property is homesteaded, the assessed value would be reduced by an additional $25,000, so the tax would be 890,000 - 25,000 = 865,000 X .01 = $8,650. CLICK HERE for a description of Florida's Homestead Statute.

I was very surprised to learn that the tax rate is not uniform across the state. Each county sets it's own rate. And some counties apparently have very high tax rates--much higher than Monroe County. So it is understandable why so many taxpayers are feeling the pinch.

If you are looking to buy a property in the Lower Florida Keys you can use a computer tool provided by the Monroe County Tax Assessor to predict what your property taxes would be on any given property. CLICK HERE to go the the page, identify the property, enter the proposed sales price, the the County Assessor's website will show you what your taxes will be.

A spokesman for the county assessor told me that the county looks at the sales price to make sure that the price paid was bona fide (arms length transaction) and the value of improvements to the property to determine the final assessed value. I always tell prospective buyers to contact the county assessor directly and not to rely on anything I or any other Realtor tells them about what their individual taxes will be. Do your homework so you are not mistaken or mislead. Generalizations are just that.

Florida does not have an state income tax. So property tax is one of the primary sources of funding local government. Don't expect any rapid or dramatic change to the current system. But it does look like some type of reform may be in the works.

CLICK HERE to preview all current mls listings in the Key West are. Then give me a call for further information. Thanks. 1-305-766-2642.