Key West Real Estate Sales Report - June 2020

Even before the world wide pandemic set in, it seemed to me that the Key West real estate market was taking a breather from the previous years of market upturn. Numerous businesses on Duval Street were vacant. I felt the market had paused. Buyers were waiting for greedy sellers to come to their senses and stop the over-reaching to which so many are inclined. Then the City of Key West and Monroe County shut down the city and access to the Florida Keys. US 1, the only road into the Keys, was road blocked. Vacationers were forced to leave the Keys. US 1 reopened on June 1st.  People have started to return. 

The real estate market did not cease to function after the lock down. There were new listings and some of those listings sold quickly. I did not sense that any of the new listings were panicked listings. There were many, many price reductions. One agent told me she lost seven deals where buyers pulled out after the shut down. So there is a mixed bag of upside and downside.

I performed a simple search of single family home sale in the Old Town and Casa Marina areas by number of homes sold, average sales price, and price per square foot for the seasonal time period of  January 1st to June 1st for each year starting in 2013 through 2020.

I defined Casa Marina as that area on south side of United Street to the Atlantic Ocean and the west side of White Street to Vernon St. I defined Old Town as the north side of United Street to the Gulf of Mexico and the west side of White Street to and including Truman Annex and Sunset Key. I did not include any sales east of White Street for either market area. I knew prices had risen dramatically but suspected sales would there would be fewer sales in each area in 2020. I was wrong.

CASA MARIA
 

Year	No of Sales	Avg Sales Price	Price Per Sq Ft
2013	7	$1,594,687	$581
2014	11	1,660,785	657
2015	8	1,452,000	704
2016	8	1,591,875	711
2017	8	1,804,000	693
2018	7	1,413,333	728

              2019                    5            1,389,800                    737
              2020                    9            1,191,899                    777


June 2020 Current Inventory of Unsold Single Family Homes on the Market
                                          8          $1,786250                      858

OLD TOWN

Year	No of Sales	Avg Sales Price	Price Per Sq FT
2013	65	$748,572	$501
2014	106	862,082	547
2015	73	952,065	633
2016	147	936,775	591
2017	46	992,965	700
2018	40	1,257,904	789

 
   2019                                    58           1,196,788                840
   2020                                    96           1,217,035                821

June 2020 Current Inventory of Unsold Single Family Homes on the Market
                                               64       $1,659,347                  836

I went back to recheck the 2013 and 2014 sales. I was amazed to see how many homes sold in those years and at the price appreciation that has occurred since then. I intuitively knew that many of those houses have sold once or twice during the six or seven years. But as I looked at the prices which they sold for then as compared to more recent sales, I was awed.

We continue to sell and re-sell the same houses as sellers die, divorce, or move-up to a larger home. Not all houses have appreciated. Some went down or side-ways. But most did appreciate.  The neat thing about owning a house in Key West is that you can use it.  You can escape the cold of up north, get away from the craziness, the cars, the noise, the chaos.

If you have been sitting on the sideline waiting for the axe to fall, you may want to rethink your strategy.  If you are looking a for a Realtor to help you find a place in Key West, consider calling me, Gary Thomas, 305-766-2642. I am a full time Realtor at Preferred Properties Key West.

Key West Real Estate Sales Report - June 2018

I took the above photo a few years ago. It shows the sleek metal spiral staircase in a modern addition to an historic home in the Old Town Key West. The photo is a bit symbolic of real estate prices in most parts of the county which go up and down. I have been selling real estate in Key West for the past twenty-two years where, save for the 2008 Recession and a couple of years thereafter, real estate prices have gone up an average of ten per cent or more each year.

I have become more and more pessimistic by the ever-increasing cost of housing in Key West. My business is down as there are fewer buyers for reasonably priced second homes. The fewer listings has made some sellers less willing to bargain.

Several months ago readers of my blog invited me to listing their house for sale. I knew the property because I wrote a blog about it when it was then for sale and showed it to several potential buyers. It had a few "issues", but it also had a terrific location and all that charm so many buyers want. The current owner bought the place and did a thoughtful and stylish renovation. I the asked the gent if he had a price point in mind. He deferred and asked me what I thought. I don't dillydally. I reminded him he paid top price per square foot when he bought the house and replaced things all houses have. I told him my suggested price which was a bit more than the average ten percent appreciation houses achieve year over year in Key West. He thanked me for my time and said they know the market and think their renovation commanded a higher price. That "seller" then listed the house with the agent who sold it to them. The price was in the stratosphere. The house did not sell and the listing was cancelled after a couple of months. This "seller" is not a lone wolf. There are a lot of sellers like this in this market right now or who cancelled their listings rather than sell at a discount to their perceived value of their property.

I performed a simple search of single family home sale in the Old Town and Casa Marina areas by number of units sold, average price paid, and price per square foot for the seasonal time period of  January 1 to June 1 for each year starting in 2013 through 2018.  I knew prices had risen dramatically but suspected sales would there would be fewer sales in each area in 2018.

CASA MARIA
 

Year	No of Sales	Avg Sale Price	Price Per Sq Ft
2013	7	1594687	581
2014	11	1660785	657
2015	8	1452000	704
2016	8	1591875	711
2017	8	1804000	693
2018	7	1413333	728

 Current Inventory of Unsold Single Family Homes on the Market
                                          8            1786250                      858

 OLD TOWN

Year	No of Sales	Avg Price	Price Per Sq FT
2013	62	688	479
2014	45	984	601
2015	73	952065	633
2016	38	926	660
2017	46	992965	700
2018	40	1257904	789

Current Inventory of Unsold Single Family Homes on the Market
                                               64        1659347                     836


I wondered what happened in 2015 that may have attributed to the higher than average sale. I went to Google which led me to a Washington Post article. One item stuck out:

The Fed raised interest rates, marking the end of an era
The Federal Reserve's rate hike in December was notable not for its size -- the federal funds rate increased by a tiny one quarter of a percentage point -- but for its symbolism. It was the first rate hike in more than a decade and a sign that some of America's most prominent economic thinkers believe the economy is once again sound, roughly seven years after the onset of the global financial crisis.

I added the emphasis at the bottom of the above paragraph. Remember during the 2008 presidential campaign when the US and world economy took the huge tumble. The Key West market was hit very hard because a lot of our houses are second homes. A lot of the sales preceding the 2008 tumble  were financed with little money or no money down.  Those owners/buyers had no substantial stake in their "investment" property in Key West. Many of those owners abandoned their properties which were then sold at a discount to prior year cost. Buyers who bought homes in Key West during the next few years should have received substantial appreciation on their properties. Later the FAKE NEWS about the BP Oil Spill spewed from CNN and the Weather Channel. The spill happened, but it did not affect the Keys. But the noise impacted our tourist and real estate market for two years. Our local economy steadily recovered as did the national economy. Unemployment decreased, the stock market and optimism increased, and America was back on the right track again.

I am a firm believer that the FAKE NEWS spewed by CNN about Hurricane Irma's predicted devastation of Key West and the images of real destruction in the Lower Keys has done substantial damage to our tourist economy and is partially responsible for the lower interest in buying in Key West. Most of the damage that occurred in Key West was the loss of our canopy trees. Many like the above tree on Flagler Avenue uprooted and fell to the ground. Trees were down everywhere. They damaged roofs, fences, cars. We lost one house where two trees fell onto the porch. The damage was so severe that house did come down. That one house.

Realtors gossip just like everybody else. The honest ones will tell you their business is down from prior years. I am doing okay, but not as good as I did in previous years. Also, nearly every buyer asks me about Irma, flood elevation level, and the cost of flood and wind insurance. There is a constant pessimism over the risk of buying here.

Before I moved to Key West I had thought of buying a place in Laguna Beach. I love that little town.
I was staying at the Newport Hyatt in June 1992 when the 7.3 magnitude earthquake hit. The building shook and shook and shook. About an hour later I was sitting on the balcony with my legs up on the railing when a huge aftershock occurred. It was so strong that I fell on yo the floor. That sounds funny now but it wasn't then  That quake caused me to re-evaluate any thought of moving there. It was my Irma moment.

There will always be earthquakes in California and there will always be hurricanes that hit someplace in the United States Some are worse than others. And New York City and surrounding areas will be freezing cold in the winter and hotter than hell in the summer.  This is life. Where you decide to live it is up to you. I prefer living on a little island out in the middle of the ocean  The sales numbers don't affect me as much as the traffic.

Key West Real Estate Sales Report - First Six Months of 2017

It's that time again - time to take a look at the houses sold during the first six months of 2017 and try to make sense of what those sales tell us about the current real estate market in Key West. I will compare the 2017 solds to the solds during the first six months of 2015.

As in the 2015 survey I used the Key West MLS database for the geographic areas of Key West and Stock Island but did not include any sales east of Stock Island. This is geographic area most potential buyers consider to be "Key West" even though our MLS database extends ten miles east of Mile Marker 0. 

707 South Street Key West pool and gardens

173 single family homes sold between January 1, 2017 and June 30, 2017. The least expensive house sold at $325,000. 707 South Street (famed for being a filming location for the James Bond movie License to Kill ) was the most expensive home sold in Old Town. The house sold for $5,000,000 plus an additional $395,000 for the furnishings.  The house and guest cottage had undergone an extensive renovation plus the addition of a garage entered off Villa Mill Alley with guest bedrooms on the second level. Landscape architect Craig Reynolds redesigned the pool and grounds into a tropical paradise.

920 Terry Lane Key West

1403 Catherine Street Key West

721 Chapman Lane Key West

The real estate market in Key West keeps getting more expensive each year.  As prices continue to rise the volume of sales has gone down a bit. There is still a huge demand for homes in Key West and sales were much more brisk than I thought earlier in the year.  116 single family homes sold between $325,000 to $987,000 or 67% of the entire sales during the first six months. There were 45 singles family homes that sold priced $1,000,000 to $1,950,000. The three homes shown above reflect the appreciating market in Key West. 920 Terry Lane sold in March 2013 for $750,000 and resold in June 2017 for $1,175,000 or 63% price appreciation in four years. 1403 Catherine Street sold for $750,000 in May 2012 and resold in June 2017 for $1,300,000 or 57% price appreciation. 721 Chapman Lane sold was a bank foreclosure that sold in March 2011 for $370,000. The owner did an incredible renovation to the home. It sold in April 2017 for $1,200,000. This sale is significant because of the location - Bahama Village. In the next year or so I think the price for homes in Bahama Village may explode as the new Truman Waterfront Park will open to the public. Homes located near the Historic Key West Seaport underwent a similar price spike a generation ago as the boardwalk and esplanade made the old seaport much more tourist friendly.

411 Grinnell Street Key West

 Six homes sold between $2 million to $3 million including 411 Grinnell Street pictured above. This 1541 square foot home sold at $1,817 per sq ft. The home was located on a 8,375 square foot lot which included a ROGO unit with plans to build a second home. I have no idea whether another home will be built. And six homes sold in excess of $3 million with two which sold at $5 million, 707 South St mentioned above and a manse on Sunset Key.

I looked back at my six month report from 2015 where we had a total of 207 single family home sales in Key West between January 1, 2015 and July 1. The highest priced sale was 620 Eaton Street (above) which sold at $4,495,000. The least expensive house sold at $225,500. During the first six months of 2015 34 homes sold between $1,000,000 to $2,000,000. During the first six months of 2015 7 single family homes were sold priced between $2,000,001 to $3,000,000.  Twelve houses sold in 2017 sold priced over $2,000,000. That's a huge increase in volume of sales plus price increase. I have written several blogs complaining that there are not enough buyers willing to pay for homes in the higher price ranges. The sales statistics prove that I was wrong about demand and willingness to pay more than $2,000,000 for a house. The 2015 MLS stats show 70 houses sold priced under $500,000. 32 single family homes were sold during 2017.  That part of our market is really diminishing. As a local I worry about affordable pricing for other full time residents. More and more locals have to find places to live on other nearby islands which are now experiencing similar price appreciation, just at a less expensive price than in Key West.

I hold open houses almost every weekend during prime selling season - late November thru Memorial Day. One of the most repeated observations is the seemingly high number of homes listed for sale in Key West.  These "buyers" are typically looking at homes in Old Town or Casa Marina which are located on about 25% of land mass of the Island of Key West. They perceive all the for sale signs as omens of woe. That's hardly the case. Many of the homes still have for sale signs without riders advising the public the houses are under contract. The three examples of recent home sales also illustrate the frequency of re-selling the same house within a limited time period. In most of America, homes are lived in for a generation or more. Houses in Old Town and Casa Marina are often second of third homes and are resold with frequency. If you happen to come to Key West and want to look for a house, look me up. I am a buyers agent and a full time Realtor at Preferred Properties Key West.

Key West Home Stretch Sales Report

Rita Hayworth and Dick Haymes at the Casa Marina Resort in Key West - 1954

Last week I had a lengthy conversation with a customer who bought and sold a couple of properties from me. We discussed the current state of the real estate market in Key West. I told her I think our market is both under priced and over-heated. I know that sounds inconsistent. I have studied this market since 1984 when I first visited the island of Key West when the Curry Mansion was listed for an astonishing one million dollars. Town folk thought the seller must be insane. I have been a realtor here since 1996. In late December I will be celebrating 11 years in writing this blog about Key West real estate. We had our downturn along with the rest of the United States right after 2008 Recession.  We experienced a second jolt  in 2010 after the media incorrectly reported that the Florida Keys were impacted by the BP Oil Spill. I can affirmatively report the Key West real estate market has otherwise risen year after year and that I have learned not to underestimate it.


Let's look at the sales of houses and condos & town homes for the first ten months of 2015 and 2016. Some readers may have seen a recent sales report generated by the Key West Association of Realtors. That report includes home sales for homes in our sales area which extends beyond Shark Key. My search is limited to areas between Key West and Shark Key.

2015  Total Single Family Homes SOLD  312
Lowest Price: $222,500    Median Price: $791,987   Highest Price: $5,000,000

2016  Total Single Family Homes SOLD 250
Lowest Price: $168,000     Median Price: $699,000   Highest Price: $6,225,000

2015 Total Condos and Town Homes  225
Lowest Price: $160,650     Median Price: $380,000    Highest Price: $2,300,000

2016 Total Condos and Town Homes  210
Lowest Price: $140,000     Median Price: $450,000    Highest Price: $2,100,000

There is an upward shifting price buyers are willing to pay for better homes in our market.  For readers outside of Key West is may seem incredulous but it is true that a starter home or a fixer-upper will likely cost about $500,000. And there are very few houses priced that low.

I did a second search to determine how many single family homes sold in 2015 and 2016 (from January 1 to November 3) with price spreads in the one to two million range, two million to three million, and over three million. The results are amazing.

2015 Single Family Homes SOLD  by Price
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000:  65
$2,000,000 to $3,000,000:    8
$3,000,000 and beyond:        3
Total:                                    76

2016 Single Family Homes SOLD by Price
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000:  47
$2,000,000 to $3,000,000:  13
$3,000,000 and beyond:       9
Total:                                   69

I read these statistics to show we are in a price downturn. I think our market is over-priced and that has caused the decline in the total number of sales. We may also be sharing in the national decline in total home sales reported on September 22, 2016 by the National Association of Realtors®.  Our market is different than most of America because we have a limited land mass and severe governmental restriction of building new housing. A good portion of the Key West market involves the resale of historic old homes. Buyers in all price ranges are impacted by the governmental rules and regulations which in my opinion have a depressing effect on the price buyers are willing to pay for a home.  We are now in the home stretch. Maybe the last two months of sales will exhibit a tremendous surge in home sales and upward price spikes.