Lessons Learned

See the old house on the right? It was one of four buildings that had been assembled into a 23 unit apartment complex near downtown Denver. I bought it in August 1980 with a guy I worked with in Denver, and we had a contract to flip it in December 1980 for more than a 100% profit. The deal blew up, we sued the buyer for specific performance, and our Realtor disobeyed our specific written instructions not to return the earnest money deposit to the buyer. The settlement we reached with the buyer was nothing compared to the loss we incurred when the market disappeared. And my co-worker "friend" stopped paying his half of the mortgage. The short term flip turned into a 13 year learning lesson.

The Denver market had been on an up-tick for several years and the area where the property was located was being purchased for redevelopment by lots of folks. I was doing commercial loan workouts for the largest bank in Denver so I was very familiar with what was happening in the market. The Denver residential and commercial real estate markets were skyrocketing. My own house appreciated 253% between 1977 and 1982 when I sold it. But my experience was typical, not an aberration.

But when the oil market tumbled in Colorado, the whole economy farted. The housing market didn't just go limp, it went south. Properties across the board depreciated in value. Homeowners walked away from homes that they had recently purchased that had mortgages higher than the their worth.

The logic was simple. If homeowner owed $100,000 on a house only worth $75,000 the homeowner would just walk away from the house and let the bank deal with the property. So what if the homeowner had to file bankruptcy, the bank should have been more careful in the first place. Besides lots of other people were doing the exact same thing. There is no shame in having been taken by a bank.

But the banks lost as well. They had loaned millions on new office buildings, shopping centers, strip malls, etc. The problem was the banks did not always know how many other and usually similar other projects were being built. As a result Denver ended up with a huge over supply of downtown office space, shopping centers, and one gazillion strip malls.

And as for me, I bought out my co-worker so that my credit would not get impaired. But instead of selling the building and going forward, I decided to wait for the market to return so that I could make the profit I wanted. I did, sort of. But it took 13 years.

I'm sure you have heard of the "bigger fool theory". GO HERE to read about the bigger fool theory. In an up real estate market there is always going to be someone willing to buy at a price higher than the present owner paid. But when the market turns south, even stupid people get smart and stop buying. It seems that just about everyone decides not to buy until it is safe. And everyone has their own theory on what the market will do and how long it will take.

Well, it took me 13 years to get out, and I should have known better. I let that little ego-maniac in my brain rule my thought processes. I should have sold and gone on to do other things.

And the banks that made the stupid loans should have learned not to do that again. They didn't. But I did. The banks and savings & loans took a whipping in the late 1980s and early 1990s. And the banks (and this time investment banking firms as well) are getting hammered over bad home loans. Homeowners are doing what they did in Denver in the 1980s and that is walk away from their homes and mortgages.

There is a slew of inventory on the market and few buyers with the nerve to buy it for fear (or expectation) that the market will continue to fall further.

There are a few parts of Key West real estate that are hitting the skids big time: the Key West Golf Club, Seaside, and many homes in New Town that were damaged during Hurricane Wilma. The cheap units at the Golf Club that sold in 2005 for over $500,000 are now priced around $300,000 +/-. That is scary. But the prices there may fall more. Homes in New Town that were built in the late 50s and early 60s that sold in 2005 in the $750,000 + range are now available in the mid $500,000 range +/-.

During this past week in Key West there were 48 new residential listings,43 residential price reductions, 13 contracts that went contingent or pending and 3 sales. This is selling season, so it is not surprising to see all the new listings. But the price reductions (especially the drastic ones) indicate a market in turmoil.

There is a house I have written about here several times that just got listed by another real estate company. The prior listing agent did her customer a huge disservice by listing the property way too high for this market. I personally had written an offer on the property but then decided not to submit it because I thought the listing agent would not convey the offer in a positive tone. We are not supposed to speak evil of other Realtors. I would like to tell you what I think of that woman. But I can't.

I will stop writing now, but I do think there are buying opportunities. Good properties will sell and the rest is going to grow weeds and the paint will peel.

Key Haven Waterfront at Affordable Price

42 Key Haven Road, Key West, Fl has just been reduced in price from the initial $1,300,000 to only $990,000.

This is how the listing broker describes this property: Huge Price Reduction!!! Best value per Sq. footage currently on the market! Spacious waterfront home located on beautiful Key Haven. 5 bdrm, 3 bath that includes a legal separate mother-in-law unit with plumbing in place to add a kitchenette-337 sq. ft.. Renovations completed that include new-tile floors throughout, landscaping, front door, brushed stainless steel appliances & central a/c system. Split floor plan offers a very private master suite with tile handicap access bathroom and lots of closets. Sitting room, dining room area and over sized family room, screened Florida room overlooks the water. Laundry room with hookups in place and extra shower plus door to side yard. Vacant and easy to show-owners say sell!!

That pretty much says it all. Owner wants out. At the reduced asking price the house is offered at $322 per sq ft. There have been five market sales in the same 5th Addition to the Key Haven Subdivision in since January 1, 2007 with the price per foot sales price higher than the current asking price. GO HERE to compare those properties for yourself. Prior to Hurricane Wilma this particular property would have sold fairly quickly, of that I am sure. But today it is a different market and for a buyer looking for waterfront property that may have the mother in law (or some other Lothario) this home may be worth taking a look at. CLICK HERE for more photos and info on 42 Key Haven Road.

If you are looking to buy a house or condo, but don't like the looks of this particular property, don't fret. We have lots of houses for sale in all price ranges and locations. CLICK HERE to do your own search of the Key West mls database and then call me (Gary Thomas)at 305-766-2642 or email me at kw1101v@aol.com to schedule a showing.

Estate Sale -- 912 Fleming Street Old Town Key West

912 Fleming is a really big house with a beautiful pool on a big lot on a great street with really expensive neighbors. And it is priced to sell.

Here's the skinny. The previous owner was a designer who renovated numerous properties in Key West for himself and clients for several years. He had purchased the house next door (at 916 Fleming)and was renovating it when he passed away early in 2006. His estate sold the project house for $1.5 million (the house was gutted and was basically a very expensive "shell"). That property is pictured to the right and shows how it looked in January 2006 and February 2007. It is almost finished.

The house at 912 Fleming is 3228 square feet on a 5650 square foot large--fairly large for Old Town. It has 4 licenses and the owner rented two apartments located at the front of the home and he lived in the rear--most of which was newly constructed by him during his renovation in 1997-98.

The home is perfectly livable "as is", but a new homeowner may want to eliminate the rentals and expand the living space to the entire house. And here is why: the neighbors.

The house next door at 908 Fleming just sold for $3,600,000 ($1,158 per square foot) and is undergoing a massive remodel. That house is huge and has a huge lot. And just next door to 908 another new house is being built. The house across the street at 911 Fleming sold after 120 days on the market for $4,340,000 or $1401 per sq ft. That house also is huge and has a huge lot. See the trend: big houses and big bucks being spent.

The estate of the former owner has reduced the price from the original asking price of $2.6 million to $1,790,000 or $554 per square foot. That's a no-brainer in my book. The house is Perfectly Livable as is. Great block and ready to go.

CLICK HERE to find a stately home or a potter's cottage in Key West. We have them all. There is a house waiting to be made a home. Call me, Gary Thomas, 305-766-2642 or e-mail me at kw1101v@aol.com to schedule a showing of 912 Fleming Street or any other property you may find on the Key West mls website.

Classic Key West Architecture: 1113 Fleming St.

I call it Greek Revival. Conchs call it a Conch House. Whatever you want to call it, it is a Classic Key West home. This great house is located at 1113 Fleming Street and the owner wants to sell.

Classic Key West architecture with an up to date interior make this perfectly located Old Town home a smart choice. The floor plan is perfect for entertaining with the kitchen/dining and living room opening onto a rear covered porch and yard with spa pool. A wonderful feature of the property is the recently built guest cottage at the rear of the 165 ft. length lot. The guest cottage is a legal separate unit and is totally private and can also be accessed from Stickney Lane. There is covered off street parking for 2 cars.

Noted local architect Michael Ingram was the previous owner of the home and designed many of the improvements to the home during the period of his ownership. While the exterior is classic in design, the interior is remarkably "up to the minute" in design and functionality. The rear of the home opens onto the courtyard that is designed to take advantage of Key West's superb weather.

This home was originally priced at $1,725,000 and has been reduced to $1,349,000 or $542 per sq ft. That is a very good price for a superb location. CLICK HERE for more photos and detailed information on 1113 Fleming Street in Old Town Key West, Florida.

If this property doesn't suit your fancy, CLICK HERE to search the Key West mls database to find one that does. Then give me a call at 305-766-2642 or send me an e-mail at kw1101v@aol.com.

Pitch a Tent in Key West

So you have some money that you want to use to buy a property in Key West. You have read that the market is down, and you have decided that now is the time to pitch a tent in Key West. That's me in the photo to the right. I pitched my tent near Rifle,Colorado in 1997. Never heard of Rifle? It's on Interstate 70 between Vail and Grand Junction. It is actually very pretty. If you do a quick Internet search you will see that property values there, though less on the low-end, are proportional to Key West prices for mid-range properties.

Take the pretty as a picture cabin in East Rifle (other photo to the right). It is listed at $950,000, but that includes Pond! One bedroom one bath mother-in-law apartment with single car garage. 8 acre shares of Silt Project Water. Inclusions - 2 stoves, 2 refrigerators, 2 dishwashers, 2 microwaves, window coverings, leather couch, bar and keg in family room. Exclusions - Sellers personal property, 2 freezers in garage, hay in barn, dumpster and 2 grain bins.

But if you look at the cozy little 3 bed, 2 bath fixer-upper in the town of Rifle priced at $240,000 you'll see that fixer-upper isn't that much of a better deal than a Key West fixer-upper, especially since it is located in the boonies.

Now one could say that Key West is at the end of the road, and they would be right. You don't just happen upon Key West by accident. Well, I guess you could be driving and make a wrong turn in Homestead and end up here. But that is doubtful. No, people come here on purpose: to have fun and enjoy the weather and the easy-going lifestyle.

I did a quick search of the Key West mls database and came up with a list of single family homes priced under $1,100,000 in the Old Town area. Take a look and see if one interests you enough to decide to pitch your tent in Key West. I included a couple of "affordable" properties as well as a couple of homes that are what just about every second home buyer dreams about when they conger up what their Key West home should look like. The issue is not being able to find the right property, but it is rather finding the right property at the right price. No matter how much you want a property, even in a down market, you must pay the price. As a buyer you cannot just wait for the price to drop to your comfort level. Your expectation of price and value must be grounded upon a rational basis.

CLICK HERE to do your own personal search of home in Key West. If you see something you like please give me (Gary Thomas) a phone call at 305-766-2642 to schedule a showing. Or contact me by e-mail at kw1101v@aol.com. If all else fails and you can't find a home at the right price perhaps you can pitch your tent at Boyd's Campground on Stock Island.

2007: That Was the Year That Was

Hey readers, I am not a statistician. I am a firm believer you can use statistics to justify any position you want to take. The accuracy of the information I am about to give you comes from the records of the Key West Association of Realtors mls database. The information in that database is entered by individual offices or sometimes individual Realtors. Get the point: I am hinting that the numbers are probably not 100 per cent correct. You know the phrase "garbage in, garbage out". I am certain that innocent errors were made while entering data. Also, our database contains some duplicates (long story--accept what I say.) Nevertheless, it is what we have to work with.

In 2004 there were 461 single family and condo sales totaling $335,058,765 in Key West. (The specific areas are the islands of Key West, Stock Island, and up to and including Shark Key.) This is our base year.

In 2005 there were 522 single family and condo sales totaling $505,594,132. There were 4 major hurricanes that hit Key West this year with Hurricane Wilma being the strongest and the one that had major short term and long term impact on the island and the economy of Key West. The sales volume in 2005 provided a 66.27% increase over the sales in 2004. And the number of sales increased 61% during that time.

In 2006 there were 302 single family and condo sales totaling $275,697,052. The Key West economy was in recovery most of the year. Many homes were damaged during Hurricane Wilma and local builders and individual homeowners did a significant amount of rebuilding after the hurricane. Buyers were very apprehensive because of the hurricane and the realization that the entire US housing market was in decline. Homes sales declined over the year 2005 by 54% and the number of sales declined by 57%.

In 2007 there were 336 single family and condo sales totaling $283,211,865. The good news is that our sales were up over 2006 by .027% in dollar volume and up by 11.25% in the number of sales. Not a lot, but it is better than being down.

Something really foreign happened in Key West during 2007: the local economy took a deep downturn. Several businesses shut down. Some Duval Street merchants through in the towel and closed rather than getting beaten to death by greedy commercial landlords that demanded higher and higher rents. There were a lot of foreclosures. Some borrowers were able to fend off foreclosure by getting their bank lender to accept a Short Sale price which allowed the seller/borrower to walk away from the property and the debt with the lender getting most, but maybe not all of its loan repaid. There had always been an occasional foreclosure in Key West, but the number of foreclosures in 2007 was totally counter to experience. Year after year property values increased by at least 10%. So the loss of market value (and that is exactly what occurred) was shocking.

In the year 2005 the asking price for a home in Old Town was just about $1000 per sq ft pretty much across the board. Now in 2008 the asking price has adjusted to the new reality that the heyday market of 2005 is gone forever. Many (but not all) sellers are listing their properties more realistically. Some Realtors (read my item Listing Whores) continue to act like enablers who create an atmosphere in which the seller can comfortably continues to believe that their homes are so special that they can command an exorbitant price. I just did a quick check of new listings for the last week of December 2007. The prices ranged from $270 to over $1400 per sq. ft. There are many, many still priced over $1000 per sq ft.

Since we are at the beginning of 2008 the pundits are busy telling us what we already know (or choose to try not to recollect) and that is "The United States is deep in its worst housing slump since the Great Depression, and according to a new report, it's not going to get better any time soon." GO HERE to read the CNN Money item that discusses with clarity the predictions of the potentates from on high. Note that they specifically site three Florida localities (not near Key West) that are probably going to melt-down during 2008: Naples, Fort Whalton Beach, and Punta Gorda.

We are seeing things a little more optimistically here in Key West. I already pointed out that our sales are better in 2007 than they were in 2006. But we also have 46 properties under contract that are waiting to close. The least expensive is $235,000 and the highest is a home on Sunset Key at $5,100,000. There are 18 properties priced over $1,000,000 that are contingent or pending. The average price on those is $1,478,500. Forty Six properties waiting to close as of today, January 1st. That's a pretty damned good way to start the new year. Those folks up in Naples, Fort Whalton Beach and Punta Gorda should be so lucky. By the way, our weather is better, are people are certainly more interesting, and we don't have their traffic.

CLICK HERE to checkout the Key West mls database. It is maintained in real time
not like on a lot of search sites that has dated info. So what you see when you search is what is really availble. After you have done your searching, please call me at 305-766-2642 or e-mail me at kw1101v@aol.com. I'd be glad to help you find your home in Paradise. Don't make the mistake of waiting for the other shoe to drop. That only happens at the Bourbon Street Pub (never did understand that name!) on Duval Street at midnight on December 31st. Things are going to start going back up.

627 Elizabeth Street in Old Town Key West

627 Elizabeth Street might be the vacation home you have been waiting to find.

Classic Old Town Conch house in prime neighborhood that is more than 85% completed. Completely renovated with second floor addition for more living space. Fantastic opportunity to pick out the final touches or wait for completion in approximately 60 days.

The main living area and kitchen are located at the rear of the property and overlook the new pool. There are two bedrooms on the first floor and the master bed and bath are on the second floor and have a view of the pool. The ceilings in the entry hall and main living area are vaulted.

The house sits at just about the highest point on Solares Hill so you will not need to pay for flood insurance (or worry about flooding). The neighborhood has a mix of homes most of which have been renovated over the past several years. There house at 620 Elizabeth sold for $2,999,999 in 2005. A similar house next door at 625 Elizabeth sold in 2005 for $1,295,000. The house at 600 Elizabeth sold in March 2005 for $2,680,000. Several other high dollar sales were made in the immediate area over the past three years.

I think this property is well suited for a second home buyer who wants a house with everything "new" and nothing to be done. It works well for a buyer who wants to move in "tomorrow" so he can enjoy his life. The house is divided so that guests or children sleep in the bedrooms at the front of the house while the owner sleeps in the master bedroom area located at the second floor rear. Imagine being able to actually move in to a new house in Old Town with a pool and off street parking sometime in the next couple of months. Oh and did I mention everything is new. So you won't have to go out and hire a plumber or carpenter or electrician to fix things. The work has already been done.

So many first time buyers see old houses that are a little run down and think they can buy the house and re-do it and save a bunch of money. The time frame to do that is well over a year from start to finish. You can't enjoy your home for that time period. But you will be able to have fights with your contractor and subcontractors over a variety of issues. Saving money is illusionary. Let somebody else do the work for you and enjoy your vacation home in Paradise immediately.

If this house or any other Key West home CLICK HERE to perform your own search of the Key West mls database and then call me, Gary Thomas, at 305-766-2642 to schedule a showing.

Half Price Sale on a Single Family House in Old Town

The little house at 1119 Olivia Street in Old Town Key West has just been reduced to $635,000 from its original price of $1,275,000 in March 2007. Half Price! Too bad it wasn't worth the original asking price, however. The property is owned and listed by a Realtor--not me. Thank God. But he must disclose that to the public. Please don't take these comments on my part as being negative. But you need to know the facts when you invest your money in property. Especially now!

This is an excellent opportunity to own your own Conch home located in Old Town. The home at 1119 Olivia Street was completely renovated in 2005. The property is Located in the X flood zone and sustained no damage in any of the hurricanes. A true high and dry property. Some of the features include: 2 licensed residential units, 2 off-street bricked parking spots, separate electric meters, granite counters in kitchens, and central A/C, and room for a pool. The property consists of a 1 bed/1 bath apt above rented at $1,200, and a 2 bed/1 bath below rented at $1,700 Per month. Owners will have flexibility of occupying entire home as a 3bed/2bath or renting out a portion as a lock out unit. Building was termite tented in July, 2006. As I mentioned the house is now priced at $649,000 or $550 per sq ft. That price makes it very competitive in the market since it is well located in Old Town, has off street parking, and is legally licensed as two living units. The present owner purchased the house in April 2005 and paid $785,000. He then did the renovation which had to cost a minimum of $100 per sq ft rounded to $150,000. So I would increase the capital investment in the property to be in excess of $$935,000. Some smart shopper is going to buy this house on its Half Price Sale quite soon. Mark my words.

A couple of weeks back I wrote an item about the house directly across the street at 1118 Olivia which is priced at $485,000 or $700 per sq ft for a 2 bed 1 bath home that is in a compound. I think both properties have their individual attributes. The two units at 1119 Olivia is a potential Short Sale. I think that any sale of 1119 property will necessarily require the approval of the current lender.

CLICK HERE for more info, additional photos, and a map to help you locate 1119 Olivia Street.

CLICK HERE to perform your own personal search of all Key West mls listings. Then give me (Gary Thomas) a call to schedule a personal showing. My number is 1-305-766-2642 or you can send me an e-mail at kw1101v@aol.com.

Is it a good time to Buy or Sell in Key West?

Is it a good time to buy or sell real property in Key West?

In a market of volatile prices take advantage of other peoples misfortunes. A couple of weeks ago I listed numerous properties that are in the process of foreclosure or already bank owned. These are buying opportunities. The bank owned properties are routinely reduced in asking price because the reluctant bank owners want out ASAP.

Here is a "for instance" of a non-bank seller that wants out now. I suspect something is amiss. Today there is a new listing of what is an attached two story condo 202-1 Southard (Shipyard). It is the only unit of its kind. This unit was purchased in June 2005 for $1,170,000 and is now being offered at $1,095,000 or $75,000 less than the price paid two years ago. The present asking price is too high on a price per sq ft basis, and I think the seller will probably have to accept a much lower price. But the uniqueness of this particular unit make it a good deal for a buyer who buys at the right price. It looks to me like the seller has to sell and it just a matter of determining how much of a loss he (or maybe his lender) can absorb.

Here is another "for instance". Our office has a customer who owns a mixed use property that she wants to sell. She bought it many years ago, and it is debt free. She gets a good rental income on it so she is not losing money. But the tenants are not triple net, so she does have ongoing property management and maintenance expenses. The property is located on a major street near Duval. The property was originally a two story Greek revival (Conch) house that has been converted to a small retail use and there also two licensed transient guest rooms. It is really not suitable to going back to single family use because of its location. And because it lacks any meaningful off street parking, it is not really suited to a full commercial use. The owner has left the area and would like to sell. She obtained market value opinions from two commercial brokers, a "star" residential Realtor, and from an agent in our office. The two commercial brokers told her $2.5 million. The "star" said $1.6 million. The agent in our office told her $1.7 to $1.8 million if she could wait a few years. I think the real price is around $1.4 to $1.5 million today.

Should she sell? Is it worth sitting on for 5 or 10 years to maybe get the $2.5 million. I say "maybe" because we cannot predict exactly when, if ever, the property will reach that price. Should she sell it now and forgo the possible gain of a million dollars or more at some future date? I told the Realtor in our office that she ought to sell it now and get out. She should convert an asset of determinable present value into an asset capable of earning a defined income.

I did a present value analysis of the $1.5 million invested at 5% over 5 years. The future value of that amount is $1,914,422.34 or growth of $414,422.34. If she could earn a 6% return the future value would be $2,007,338.37 or growth of $507,338.37. That is what she could earn from no risk certificate of deposits.

Maybe she could use her $1.5 million to purchase a replacement(triple net commercial property) where she now lives. If she established an 8% rate of return her $1,500,000 would become $2,203,992 in five years. She could determine exactly what the future value of her non-earning asset would be simply by acting prudently now. And she could also enjoy the upside of rising property values in a market where she resides.

The owner is in her fifties so there is a good likelihood that she will be around for several years. But in the event she should pass away, what do you think her estate will do with the property? Sell it, of course. And estates are notorious for selling short. Or maybe she just sits tight and waits for the market to rise, but it doesn't. Or maybe it even declines more. Anything is possible.

You cannot predict what the future will be, but you can make prudent business decisions to reasonably insure that your assets will be worth more in the future than they are today.

CLICK HERE to checkout all Key West mls properties.

Make Your Friends and Neighbors Green with Envy

Just Listed: 719 Fleming Street Key West, Fl. $2,595,000 or $1042 per sq ft for this 2490 sq. ft. home on a large 6420 sq ft lot.

The Grande Dame on Fleming is a stunning and elegant historic home in highly desirable Old Town location. Meticulously restored this 1859 home is one of the most exquisite properties in Old Town. CLICK HERE for more detailed info and more photos of 719 Fleming Street in the heart of Old Town Key West.

This home is just shy of 2,500 square feet under air and has an expansive 1,100 square foot of Brazilian Ipe' terrace. There is a Chef's kitchen with stainless steel appliances, slate counter tops. Four bedrooms, custom spa bathrooms, European Kable Lighting systems, original glass pane windows, and high quality finishes throughout. Off-street parking, prime location steps from the best of Key West's beaches, marinas and nightlife. Large yard, beautiful pool with travertine stone decking, lush landscaping, and balconies perfect this ideal haven for sophisticated island living.

The home is located midway between William and Elizabeth on Fleming Street and sits directly across the street from the garden CLICK HERE FOR PHOTO adjacent to the Monroe County Library. It is a short walk to all major Key West attractions. A few doors to the east you will find the house that PBS "This Old House" restored a couple of years back. And a few doors to the west you will find two homes that Broadway emprasario Jerry Herman renovated in the early 1980s. So you won't need a car to get to your yacht or your favorite restaurant or other Old Town attraction.

The off street parking is exceptional. The lot is over sized and will make your automobile ventures non-troubling which is unusual for being located in the heart of Old Town.

Not everyone can afford a home like this. If you can, give me (Gary Thomas) a call at 1-305-766-2642 to schedule a showing. If you are looking for a place less expensive, don't fret. There are a lot of well priced homes and condos available in Old Town and throughout our little city. CLICK HERE for a quick peek, select a few properties that you think may meet your interest, and then give me a call. Who knows, you may make your friends and neighbors green with envy by buying now before the prices rise.