Casa Marina Area
2019 - 4 Single Family Homes
- Average Sales Price $2,325,000
- Average Sales Price Per Sq Ft $937
2018 - 5 Single Family Home Sale
- Average Sales Price $3,000,000
- Average Sales Price Per Sq Ft $1,008
Old Town - The Historic District
(Strict adherence to White Street as eastern boundary and United Street at northern boundary. Includes sales in Truman Annex but not Sunset Key).
2019 - 21 Single Family Homes Sales
- Average Sales Price $2,367,500
- Average Sales Price Per Sq Ft $1,099
- Average Sales Price $2,225,000
- Average Sales Price Per Sq Ft $817
2019 - 7 Single Family Home Sales
- Average Sales Price $3,295,000
- Average Sales Price Per Sq Ft $983
- Average Sales Price $3,225,000
- Average Sales Price Per Sq Ft $833
There were two single family homes which sold in excess of $5,000,000 in 2019. There was only one sale in excess of $5 million during the same time period in 2018 and it was located on Sunset Key which is not a part of my consideration.
908 Fleming Street sold for $5,000,000 or $1,953 Per Sq Ft. This was no ordinary 2560 Sq Ft home. It was an extraordinary home plus cottage, zen cottage, dining pavilion overlooking lake-like pool sitting on a 10,681 Sq Ft lot in the heart of Old Town.
101 Admirals Lane was located in Truman Annex. It was built new in 1994. It was 3,173 Sq Ft main house plus master bedroom cottage, pool and grounds totaling 14,183 Sq Ft. It sold at $5,870,000 or $1,850 Per Sq Ft.
Unlike the talking heads on television that know everything, I am trying to make sense of what is really going on in our local market. A couple of years ago I sold a big house to a former attorney-created a lot of money by selling an internet company he created. He felt Trump was too unpredictable and might cause the stock market to crash. He took some cash out of stocks to spread his risk into real estate. This risk aversion may be the explanation for what we are seeing in the Key West real estate market. There were many more multi-million dollar sales that I did not count because they are located outside Old Town and Casa Marina. I was surprised to see how many of those there have been as well.
1 comment:
Dear Readers, I received an email from a follower most of which is copied below.
Gary
Most recent blog.
Your attorney friend who bought a house after Trump's election might have done better by keep his money in stocks. On election day in November 2016 the Dow closed at 18,332. Today it closed at 25,866. (And the market has taken a beating the last week or two). This is an appreciation of 41%
The highest the Dow has been under Trump has been 26,658. An appreciation of 45%.
I doubt if the KW housing market has increased 41% to 45% in less than three years? Maybe it has.
On the other hand the money coming into KW homes now at high prices might be driven by the market or Trump now. That is the market has been riding high for about three years, so it is time to take money out of the market and diversify into real estate.
I don't know what will happen to the market during the last 16 months of Trump. The papers are certainly talking market downturn or even recession. But then the papers are "talking their book". That is they are saying things to support their position, e.g. they do not want Trump reelected.
But I am certain the market will turn down after a Democratic is elected in 2020 and for the following four or more years. There is simply no way to pay for the programs that the Democrats (any of them) are proposing without increasing taxes or borrowing money which will remove money from the stock market and form business capital investments. Not saying the programs are good or bad (at my age, they have little effect on me), but just saying that is what will happen.
So I think it makes a lot of sense to take money from the market now and buy a home in a hot market like Key west. I think a luxury home (which given the prices of homes in KW may be virtually any home) will hold or increase its value in the next five or eight years.
So what you may see now are people thinking ahead to the election of 2020 and the new tax and spend policies that will come in to play and taking money out of the market.
I am not saying the policies are bad or good, just saying that is what will happen. So people should plan for it. That is one of the reasons I toy with the idea of buying an investment property in KW.
I mention two other reasons, albeit smaller reasons for the hot KW market. One is the Irma rebound, e.g. people realize that KW has not been wiped off the face of the earth. Second, articles like the one appearing in the WSJ today which said the Key West is the 5th hottest second home market in the country. People see an article like that and buy so as not to be left behind. Then the market just gets hotter and more expensive.
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