730 Southard Street - Historic Key West Landmark

Just Listed (but not by me) 730 Southard Street an historic Key West Landmark.
the listing Realtor describes the property this way: "Here in the heart of Old Town Key West sits this jewel of an original Conch home built in the 1800's waiting for your special touch. The widows walk was once used by the original owners to watch wrecking vessels come into Key West bight. The history behind this home spans several generations of just one family. The rooms are large, the ceilings are high and everything is original in this 2 story home including Dade County pine throughout. There's a standup attic running the entire length with accesses from the second floor landing and master bedroom and the over sized corner lot sits in a prime location of historic Old Town."

This house sits at the corner of William and Southard Street right smack dab in the middle of Old Town. So you could not ask for a better location. The lot is huge and measures 100' X 68'.53" or 6853 sq ft. That is huge for Old Town. The house is equally large. The listing Realtor says the house is 2838 sq ft. The house has 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, a garage. an incedible facade and a widos walk. One of the photos to the right shows the view from the widows walk. CLICK HERE for more information and additional photos of the house.


The asking price on this house is $2,990,000 or $1,054 per sq ft. That's pretty high for this market, especially since the house is a virgin. It was in the same family since it was built and there is only one building permit of record in the County Appraiser's records. The house is pretty much just as it was when it was built expect for the updated appliances in the kitchen. (Look at the pics.) Of course, there is another even more expensive virgin on the market at 616 Eaton. I wrote about it on September 3 when it was listed for $5.5 million.

Maybe back in 2004 or 2005 when people were throwing money away someone would have paid the very high asking price on either of these great properties. I think it is going to be a real hard sell in this market. But don't let my pessimism dissuade you from looking--if you have the money to make a deal like this happen. I'd be delighted to show it to you. I did speak to the recently departed owner one day in October two years ago. We stood on the front porch pictured to the right and she told me stories of her growing up in the house and the way Key West used to be.

If you are looking for a place in Key West that is a a little less expensive, please call me, Gary Thomas, 305-766-2642 or e-mail me at kw1101v@aol.com. Prices on most properties are at historic lows so I think now is a great time to buy bargain priced properties. CLICK HERE to search the Key West mls database and then call me.

Key West Bank Foreclosures -- déjà vu All Over Again

It seems like it was only last week that I created a list of current bank owned properties in the Key West area. Well, it actually was last week. There have been a couple of changes so I thought it best to update the list. CLICK HERE to see the new list of single family homes.

Some of the houses in the above list have pools or are located on canals. A couple of the houses are really very nice and are priced aggressively to sell. A couple of the houses owned by local banks in Key West may even qualify for bank financing from the seller at competitive rates. So I suggest you look over the list carefully and not dismiss all of the houses as being dogs. That is not the case.

I did not include teh the above list the numerous condos and town homes in Key West, Stock Island, or the areas up to Big Coppitt Key.

There are two commercial properties investors might want to checkout. One is a mixed us building at 824 Duval. CLICK HERE for limited info posted by the listing realtor. I can provide more detailed info for interested buyers.

The second property is a condo project that did not get completed on Stock Island. Again the listing agent has only put limited info on-line. CLICK HERE to review that info. I am quite familiar with the project. I submitted an all cash offer to the bank that ended up owning this property for an amount near the asking price two years ago this month. The shrewd banker turned down my client's cash offer.

I went to the courthouse earlier this week to checkout a couple of files of pending foreclosures. Just before the judge enters and order authorizing the sale, the party seeking the foreclosure (usually the bank) submits an itemized list of all amounts it claims due on the mortgage including principal, interest, attorney fees, costs, appraisal fees, court costs, legal process fees, escrow reserve short falls, etc. The judge reviews the list and typically enters an Order that becomes a Final Judgment that includes those sums and that amount is what is bid by the foreclosing party at the public auction a few weeks later. The bank wants to load up the costs so high as to prevent some other party from buying the property at sale or inhibiting a party who has a right of redemption from exercising that right. I wasn't surprised to see that the practice has not stopped.

I think there is going to be a huge rally right after the election on November 4th. That happens after every Presidential election. But the stress on markets all over the world will be eased when the US elects its new President. If Obama wins I think European markets will soar. The Europeans hate Bush and the Bush policies. I think they see Obama as a leader who deliver all of us from the abyss. If I am right and the election marks the beginning of the end of the bear market, prices will gradually start to rise. Right now prices continue to drop. So I think now is a really opportune time to buy at or near the bottom of the market.

Want to buy now? Please call me, Gary Thomas, 305-766-2642, or e-mail me at kw1101v@aol.com for more information.

Apocalypse Now?

If you are like me you spent lot of time yesterday either watching CNBC or maybe checking in every few minutes on CNN.com or MSNBC.com to see what in the world the stock market was doing. Yesterday was most troublesome. The DOW plunged 800 points. The good thing is it could have been worse. It ended up only losing 369 points. But that "good" news was diminished by the world wide cataclysm of stock markets everywhere taking a similar dive.

I'm no economist. My economic education is probably akin to that of John McCain. Hell, I keep urging people to buy now because a lot of properties are "bargains" by comparison to what they were priced at just two or three years ago. Yeah, the fundamentals of the Key West economy are as sound as anywhere else in America.

Except they are not. Right after I started my blog in late 2006 I began to profile new projects that were being built in different areas of Key West and hoped to attract a buyer for one of the projects. I reasoned that even though the real estate market had cooled there were new projects that were designed to provide the kind of amenities many would-be buyers want. I further reasoned that the financial guys behind the deals would not be putting money into the various projects if they believed the projects would fail. Some of the properties include the uber-expensive townhomes with water views known as Casa Marina Residences, the less expensive Casa Marina Estates, the Sea Isle Townhomes, Atlantic Drive (near the ocean), the Santa Maria Condominiums, Paradise Harbor, the Steam Plant Condominiums, the Key West Beachside Resort, and the politically and legally challenged Harbor House Condominiums. I did point out that the once planned demolition of Atlantic Shores Resort to make way for another high end ocean front condominium project was scuttled and replaced by the construction of more ocean front high end hotel rooms.

The one thing I did get right was my questioning of the business model that would permit the construction of so many high end units. Not counting the Key West Beachside Resort, there were about 150 units priced in the $2 million and higher price range. I don't know the number of units at Beachside that were or are available.

Potential buyers responded to the multiple offerings with a resounding a lack of interest. This past weekend the Casa Marina Residences put the land up for sale so that uber-project is toast. The Santa Marina Condominiums have not fared well and that's all I will say on that. Key West Beachside has had some closings. The Steamplant is not yet finished. Harbor House built a model unit on the waterfront. Prices were reduced on several of the units to attract buyers. I don't think it worked. Sea Isle Townhomes is being rented a vacation rentals. The Atlantic Residences only built two buildings and the remaining lots are vacant.

People still want to buy a place in Key West, but it seems like most would-be buyers have decided to take a "time-out" and wait until the market settles before they commit. I can't argue with that.

I recently received a gift from a client: a book entitled Timing in the Real Estate Market by Robert M. Campbell. I'm almost finished. I agree with almost everything I have read so far. He discusses predictable behavior in good and bad markets. He wrote about boom times and the emergence of speculators whose sole purpose is to make a rapid profit. (That happened here over and over again. It lead to the huge price spiral from 2003 to 2005.) Houses stopped being homes and became investments.

When the real estate market got really bad and sales activity slowed (on real sales as opposed to the new phenomena of short sales), the market in Key West became driven by fear just as Mr. Campbell posits. Some owners abandoned their homes. Others just abandoned their investments. Many of those properties became foreclosures. I think many of the short sales we have seen in Key West are investments gone bad as opposed to homes being sold by abused home owners. But I don't have any statistics to substantiate my theory however.

Mr. Campbell theorizes "real estate trends are influenced by a whole host of market forces -- interest rates, the expansion or contraction of the economy, consumer confidence, income levels, inflation, population trends, changes int he tax laws, and even war." Add in gas prices and hurricanes for extra emphasis (the Gary Thomas theory).

I personally think many Americans see the coming election as not just a choice of who will be President but more importantly view it as a referendum on the kind of country we want to be in the future. Our economy is broken. Big business took our jobs and moved them to other countries. Our economy became dependent on foreign oil and our wealth got shipped overseas just like our jobs. We have become a nation of consumers and service providers. Our stature as the predominant world leader has diminished greatly. I think the election is time for payback and re-assertion of the US as moral leader.

I don't know that the Wall Street crash has occurred yet or if it is still to come. But if it has not happened yet, it will. Using Mr. Campbell's theory of market forces that can predict real estate trends, I see that crash as the Apocalypse.

I wish the election were this week because I think the results would do a lot to remove a lot of the uncertainty in the American psyche and in the real economy. I think there is going to be hell to pay in Washington. People are seeing their lives being messed around with Wall Street types who cared only about enriching themselves and by the politicians who let them get away with it.

If the election and the "crash" are in fact the bottom of the current market trend, that means that good times are headed our way. That will be the start of the next recovery. And that is the first phase of a new upward trend. The phone calls and e-mails have slowed from would-be buyers. But they have not stopped. People are waiting to see what happens next. They are poised and ready to buy if only they know that the market has hit rock bottom. Mr. Campbell teaches that the smart investor buys now and beats the crowd as they charge uphill on the next price swing.

915 Angela Street Old Town Key West

Half of you won't even read this when I tell you about 915 Angela Street. You see it is located directly across the street from the Key West Cemetery. I'm not being funny when I report that there's no room left. All the plots have been sold and there is a waiting list of would-be buyers who have their hearts set on spending eternity in Key West.

The charming cottage at 915 Angela has a bright and unobstructed view of the cemetery. The picket fence and two driveways define the outer space. But once you step inside all of the downstairs rooms open onto decks and lush tropical foliage. The affect is is just plain inviting. You want to take off your shoes and unwind.

Here is how the listing Realtor describes the home: "Delightful Old Town cottage boasting 3bd/2.5ba, two off street parking spaces and pool. An outstanding use of space brings the outdoors in with living room nestled between spacious covered decks, lush landscape, generous pool with waterfall and private spa. Enjoy charming Dade County pine walls and ceilings, renovated kitchen & baths, cathedral ceilings and lots of glass doors, windows and skylights. Impeccably cared for both inside and out and designer finished available turn key with optional furniture package negotiable."

This 1340 sq ft cottage sits on a 3350 sq ft lot. The cottage to the west is a Key West landmark and will never come down. There is a wide space between the two homes that makes the house next door seem so far away. And the neighbors across the street are just so dang quiet. You never hear a peep. The house is priced at $1,249,000 or $925 per sq ft. That's kind of high for today's market. But this is not your average Key West cottage either. CLICK HERE to see more detailed info and see more pics.

If your aren't afraid of cemeteries you owe it to yourself to see this lovely home. The rooms are very live able--meaning they are not too large and for sure not too small. Please call me, Gary Thomas, at 305-766-2642 or e-mail me at kw1101v@aol.com if you would like to see this charming cottage.

First Quarter Real Estate Sales in Key West

Let's take a quick look at how well the Key West real estate market fared during the period of March 1st rough March 31, 2008 as compared to the same periods in 2005, 2006, and 2007. The year 2005 was a record year for Key West. There were 45 single family home sales in March totaling $55,369,000 and 36 condo sales totaling $24,880,513. Then the market began its slide. And Hurricane Wilma occurred in October and that created an even greater sense of uncertainty about Key West and Key West real estate as an for primary home ownership and as an "investment" vs. second home ownership as fulfillment of a dream.

The years 2006 through 2006 had the biggest dip in home sales to only 17 for $16,389,000, but there were 20 condo sales totaling $14,045,000. In 2007 there were 21 home sales for $17,320,550 and condo sales increased to 23 for $19,056,725. This year the single family home sales increased again to 25 that totaled $19,565,300. But condo sales slumped to only 14 with a paltry $5,115,450.

The First Quarter in 2005 saw 102 single family home sales totaling $123,299,090 against 46 this year with a volume of $39,589,300. The average home price declined 29% from the 2005 level. But condo sales during the same time fared worse. There were 82 condo sales in 2005 totaling $55,871,563 vs. 29 this year with only $13,240,950. The average condo sale declined from $681,361 in 2005 to $456,584 this year or about 33%.

Back when I started this blog I wrote about real estate market cycles. They start with euphoria transition into denial and end in capitulation. I think and hope we're in the final phase. Everyday for the past three months I watch the mls as real estate owners price or re-price their real estate offerings based on the new real estate reality in Key West. The mark downs and even new offerings at significantly lower asking prices is noteworthy. I'll probably get yelled at for saying it but the condos out on the east side of the island are free falling as are the units at Key West Golf Club. A lot of owners are just "walking away" from Golf Course condos that they purchased in 2005 when the average unit sold at $681,361 vs 2008 when the average unit sold at only $348,700--that's just about a 50% drop in price. The "value" of the units is still there. But the price is gone. And so are the owners. They are leaving their homes or investments. They are trying to sell short and walk away. There are currently 29 units on the market at the Key West Golf Development with an average asking price of $455,372. For example, Mr. A bought his unit in 2004 for $549,000 and it is now priced at $299,000. He had an 80% loan but got a boost from his lender of an auotmatic second of $54,900 to help with his down payment. Still, he had $54,900 of his own money in the condo. That will be his loss. The lender will probably end up losing $294,000 on this deal when real estate commissions and other sales costs are included. And remember,there are 28 other properties for sale there alone. And the sales are not over.

I've seen a change in the market in Old Town as well. The grand homes are still retaining their allure but they don't sell that often. The large expensive renovations have started to take their hits. Many have been reduced in asking price because they did not sell. I've written about several of them. The homes that would have sold three years ago around $3 million are now worth about $2 million or so.

Just about every Realtor in town is busy showing property and many properties are going under contract every day. A lot of the folks I've been talking to are looking for bargains and they say that they think we are at or almost at the end of the down market and that is why they are starting to look. Key West has not lost its allure. It just got way over-priced, and the national economy and the mess in Washington just compound buyer uncertainty.