Some lessons in life are learned the hard way. Some are learned the easy way. Before Google maps, guys like me would drive by intuition. I would head a direction assuming my destination would appear. Eventually I would stop at a gas station or someplace and ask someone how to get to where I intended to go. I know I am not the only guy who did that.
Thirty years ago I took a road trip from Denver to Palm Springs, Los Angeles, and back. I rented a car so as to not put all that many miles on my Mercedes. It was near sunset when I drove through Las Vegas. The gas gauge was showing that I was getting low on fuel. I was on a big four lane road when I saw a turn-off at a huge gas station complex. As I approached I saw what seemed like dozens of cars waiting in line to buy gas. I decided to get back on the highway and go to another station. I drove and drove. There were fewer and fewer cars. Darkness set in. Forward I drove occasionally looking at the gas gauge. It got really dark and there were fewer cars. I don't recall anybody passing me. I was on a large divided highway with a concreted median lined by huge trees on either side. The inevitable happened. The car slowed down and then stopped. I had been having discussions with my self as well as my Ex who kept reminding me that I could have bought gas in Las Vegas but was too impatient.
I started walking forward. We had been driving well over an hour. I had no idea where I was or how long it would take to reach civilization. And then my luck changed. There was a light on the opposite side of the highway. As I got close I realized it was a gas station. I thanked God, looked both ways, and crossed the median. I explained my plight to the gas station attendant who sold me gas and took a big deposit on an ancient gas can that held about one gallon of gas.
I returned to my rental car. The gas can did not have a nozzle. I broke the fat end of a large vodka bottle thinking I could insert the bottle into the gas tank opening. That didn't work and I didn't have any vodka to drink either. Then I decide to use the Rand McNally road atlas. (I didn't need it. I drove by intuition anyway.) The covers were thick. I wound the paper into a funnel shape and was able to pour the gas into the hole. The car started. We drove past the gas station several miles before I found a place to turn around to go back to fill the car. Then I had to go back toward Las Vegas many miles before I could turn around to head toward Denver. I recall that night very well. Even thirty years later.
I tell you this story because I deal with people all the time who think they know what is ahead of us in life. Most of the people I deal with are very smart. Really smart. I have written that statement many times and have almost always noted that is why they have the money to buy a second home in a place as expensive as Key West.
There is a lot of information available on the internet about Key West real estate. A lot of that information comes from Zillow which in turn extracts and repackages information it gets from our Multiple Listing Service and other governmental and technological websites. I have worked with several buyers that have created very sophisticated computer programs and files to help them analyze the market. I think they think that data is the key to understanding the Key West real estate market.
I also need to report that a lot of Realtors have been discussing the state of the Key West real estate market and are asking the same questions I hear from potential buyers: what do you think is going on? I think we have all perceived a slow down in sales and an increase in prices. Lately we have witnessed a large number of price reductions. Then in the past two weeks we had a very large number of new homes listed for sale. One successful agent with multiple annual sales of million dollar plus houses suggested the public is scared by the government shutdown and Trumps' trade war with China. Other agents have expressed general concern over Washington in general. Some say we are headed toward a recession. Everyone has an opinion. No one knows the future. That is for sure.
I just checked the Key West MLS. We have 22 single family homes under contract in the Old Town, Casa Marina, Meadows, Truman Annex, and Sunset Key areas of Key West. We have a glut of very expensive homes and not enough lower priced homes listed for sale. Lower priced houses in the Old Town and surrounding areas are more likely need new money to make them habitable to the standards of our community which often times makes our lower priced homes very expensive compared to other parts of the country. But our weather and quality of life is probably better than most parts of the country.
I represent three of the twenty-two home buyers with properties under contract. My buyers are buying houses in a high demand but limited supply market. They chose to buy now rather than wait for the market to do whatever it will do. We really don't know what that new market will be or when it will be. But we do know what now is.
If I had known there was not another gas station for miles and miles, I would have never gone down that lonesome highway driving on gas vapors. I made a bad decision based on a false assumption that there would be another gas station. That is one mistake I will never make again. I would rather stand in line or to pay too much for gas than to get stranded on a roadside in the wilderness.
Mr. Smarty Pants might be wise to take advantage of the general apprehension in our real estate market. We know what is available now. We can try to negotiate the best deal now. Sellers should share the apprehension of the future. No one knows what tomorrow will bring. Cash now is better than less cash tomorrow or more cash three years from now after you have died of a heart attack.
